ITH Poker Forum

[mchilger]

I thought this might make an interesting open discussion. Poker players like to say, "Don't turn a good hand into a bluff". Are there exceptions?

Matthew

[hazey]

Andrew "foucalt" Brokos had a nice blog entry on this a while back: http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2010/02/tu ... o-a-bluff/

Basically turning a set into a bluff on a 4-straight board to represent a flush.

I guess that's the general idea - where your opponent's range is likely ahead of your own hand (no matter the absolute strength) but you can conceivably represent better. Easier to do in theory than practice though!

Cheers
hazey

[mchilger]

OK - what about a case where your hand is better than your opponent's range?

Matthew

[Fumseck]

When there is an obvious draw on the board and you have been playing like you are drawing to it but in fact you've been slow playing a set.

If you think your opponent has a good hand like an over pair, I think it is worthwhile to over push the river. This way it looks like you missed your draw and your opponent is more likely to call thinking your are bluffing your missed draw.

Edit: Never mind this answer, in fact you are not bluffing in this spot...
Started to write something else but can`t complete it because I have to go. I'll reply a bit later.

[Fumseck]

OK - what about a case where your hand is better than your opponent's range?

Matthew

When you 3-bet preflop and your opponent just flats. An ace falls on the flop and your opponent leads the flop.

Let's say you have KK, QQ, JJ. It is unlikely he has AK in his 3bet calling range but it is in your 3-bet range.

It is easy to represent it by either raising the flop or floating it and betting the turn if checked to or raising the turn etc...

[Radford]

Surely, if you hve a good hand, you cannot turn it into a bluff? lol

[Fenris78]

The most important spot where you need to turn a "good" hand into a bluff, is when it is in fact the bottom of your range. That's a concept that becomes mostly important at the high stakes where you are facing excellent hand readers. There are often spots on the river where you have a hand with some showdown value and check it behind. But when you think about it, this hand is in fact near the bottom of your range, so game theory wise, you should use it as a bluff. If you don't do this, you would never bluff in this spot obviously, because you never have a hand in your range that has no showdown value. A good hand reader could now fold a big part of his range when you bet in this spot.

Lemme construct an example:

Hero has 44 and cold-calls an UTG raise

Flop K83 rainbow, UTG cbets 2/3 pot, we call

Turn is a 2, check-check

River is an A, villain checks....


In this spot, 44 is obviously never good and even though we have showdown value, we should never check it behind here. Clearly 44 is the bottom of our range, because we would not arrive on the river with no pair, so theoretically we should use it as a bluff now to fold out better pocket pairs.



An even more extreme example:

Hero has KQs and cold-calls an UTG raise OTB

Flop is Q75 rainbow, villain bets 2/3 pot, we call

Turn is a T, villain bets 1/2-2/3 pot, we call

River is 2, villain bets, hero shoves as a bluff


On the river, we aren't beating anything anymore except a total 3barrel bluff. By pushing we can get AA, KK and AQ to fold (20 combos), while only a set can realistically call here (10 combos, 22 is very unlikely). Pretty obviously, pushing folds out all bluffs as well, so unless villain is 3barreling super wide, bluff pushing is almost always better than calling here. Also, KQ is the bottom of hero's range after he called twice on this flop and turn. So even though it's top pair, it doesn't beat anything out of villains value range, while also being the worse hand in hero's range that could have arrived here after flat-calling twice post flop. Also, villain should not be able to call with any one pair hand if he is a decent hand reader, because there is no busted draw that hero could have had on the flop. So hero is repping the set. Please not that this hand example is only advisable at the mid-high stakes and against very good opponents. Bad regs will call you there with any one pair hand, because they have no clue, that hero basically has no bluffs in his range.

Hope this explains the concept of turning a good hand into a bluff a bit.

[mchilger]

Fenris, I'm not sure if your examples meets the criteria I'm trying to get at.

n this spot, 44 is obviously never good

My criteria for a "good hand" is one which is better than my opponent's range. In this example, you are saying that 44 is never better than my opponent's range since it is never good on the river. So it isn't quite "good" enough as I defined it. Same applies to the 2nd example.

Let me give an high-level example and see if there is logic here. Let's say an opponent raises from the hijack and has a tight 4-bet range. You have A-Q (we'll just assume in the SB for now). Your A-Q is slightly ahead of your opponent's range. Your opponent will fold a high percentage of the time to a 3-bet, and will occasionally 4-bet, and likely won't call very often.

So three options:
1/ Folding, even though you are slightly ahead of his range you are out of position.
2/ Calling. Calling has slightly positive EV given your hand and position.
3/ 3-betting with the intention of folding to a 4-bet. In this case, since your opponent folds so often, your EV is actually better than option 2.

Therefore, we have effectively turned A-Q into a bluff, despite it being ahead of our opponent's range.

Possible conclusion - Sometimes it is preferable to turn a good hand into a bluff when the bluffing opportunity is more profitable than calling when your hand is only slightly ahead of your opponent's hand.

Matthew

[the_hawk]

Personally I find the term a bit silly (and not necessarily helpful) especially if you have to argue over what is a "good" hand.

[Fenris78]

Ah, I see. Of course this mostly refers to cases where the EV of bluffing is extremely high, because villains range is so unbalanced that he has to fold so often to a bet/raise/reraise. In this case, turning a "good" hand into a bluff can often be more +EV in a vacuum than calling with it. Of course, this move is always dominated by turning a worse hand into a bluff, since the EV gained from turning a worse hand into a bluff is higher.

Some time ago, the concept of turning made hands/good hands into bluffs was the latest hype on Cardrunners et al. with the result that people were using it way too much. Obviously when you start turning made hands into bluffs in addition to all the other bluffs you already have, will make your bluffing frequency go through the roof. People were so crazy with that move that they used it way too much.

Overall the concept of turning a good hand into a bluff, because it's the highest EV line is only applicable in a vacuum. I think especially in MTTs, where you don't play enough hands with others to get a proper read on them. You probably need to watch out for situations where villains range is very heavily weighted towards bluffs or weak made hands/thin value bets.

I would think of something like this:

We have AT and call a button open raise from the blinds

Flop is AQ4r, we check-call
Turn is a 5, check-check
River is a K. we check, villain bets, we make a big check-raise


Now we clearly have a bluff catcher with AT and we also beat a couple of his value hands. Also, most regs are bluffing in this situation virtually never, because this line is almost always a pot control line with Ax. Regs learned that they shouldn't bet-check-bet as a bluff, because it gets looked up so much more often than when you just 2barrel.

Now a giant part of an unimaginative villains range is obviously AT, AJ and A9/A8 as well as some weaker aces. Virtually no hand of his range can stand the heat of a big check-raise (except KK that 2 outered you). Now turning AT into a bluff is almost surely better than calling with it, even though calling is a bit +EV.

[Fenris78]

My criteria for a "good hand" is one which is better than my opponent's range.

I don't know if this is possible, at least not post flop. When your hand is better than your opponent's range, a bluff raise can never be more +EV.

If your opponent folds too much, you are only getting called by hands that beat you. You fold out hands that are behind anyways. In this case calling is better than raising, because you lose less too hands that beat you and win the same from hands that are behind.

If your opponent calls too much, you are raising for value, not as a bluff.

So if your hand is better than your opponent's range, you can not make a bluff that is more +EV than a call.

Of course preflop this is a bit different, but I think the saying "don't turn a made hand into a bluff" mostly applies to post flop situations.

[mchilger]

Virtually no hand of his range can stand the heat of a big check-raise (except KK that 2 outered you). Now turning AT into a bluff is almost surely better than calling with it, even though calling is a bit +EV.

I like this example. Here you have a positive EV situation with a good hand, but a more positive EV situation if you turn that good hand into a bluff.

I used 51% just as an example. Surely there are situations where your hand merits a call despite behind slightly behind, but where raising as a bluff would be better. I just used 51% to help steer the discussion.

I think there are a lot of 3-betting opportunities preflop in MTT's that are so profitable, it doesn't really matter what your hand is, so turning A-Q or 99 into a bluff isn't that bad, despite the common saying that you just turned a good hand into a bluff.

Matthew

[jeffnc]

Most players consider way ahead/way behind situations ones in which you play passively and get to showdown cheaply, because you can't win a lot, but you can lose a lot. They argue the hand has value, so you want to showdown.

Example: you have A6 on a board of AAJ53. There is no hand you're going to get action from unless you're behind or they suspect you are bluffing. The right bet size can get A9 to fold, while it could get a call from KJ. Depending on how you got to the river, you could easily be ahead of your opponent's range, but the combination of bluffing if you're behind, and appearing to bluff if you're ahead, can be big EV.

[Taardvark]

When there is an obvious draw on the board and you have been playing like you are drawing to it but in fact you've been slow playing a set. .

I'd add a correlary to this in those circumstances where you have a weak made hand, it appears from the action to be behind, you've been representing the draw, and then back into a hand like hitting a river set that misses the obvious draw. You probably aren't technically bluffing anymore, but its going to appear to be a bluff, especially if you play it like you would when you do miss the draw.

[jameseigenmann]

When bluffing, you must bluff in a tight table as result, your opponents are going to fold many hands which means that they are waiting for their good hands. They are afraid to fold when they have now the middle high cards knowing that will come a time that can get a better hand. When you see players constantly betting and calling many of the hands, this is your queue to wait for a good card only and not to bluff.