ITH Poker Forum

[john111_x]

I just saw a professional go all-in for 20K on a flop where he had 13 outs.

He held 67 against an opponents pocket Kings. On the flop he had an open ended straight draw + paired 7's, and he took his opponent all-in.

He claimed he was even or better odds against an overpair of Kings. Is this correct? How did he calculate his odds?

He rivered a 9 for the straight to win.

[nsidestrate]

He calculated them wrong. He was 46% to win, so he was an underdog. You can check the odds using a number of programs. PokerStove and two dimes.net are ones I use.

[chrisjp]

n outs on flop= 4*n-(n-8) for double digit n (approx)
13 outs = 4*13-(13-8)=52-5=47 Villain has a redraw to some of these outs. Presto! nside gave the answer.

A famous one is Fossilman v. The Mouth from WSOP2004 with our own Matthew HIlger at the table....

Greg had AdJd

Mike had 97 I think

Flop was Td 9 3d or some small diamond.

Raymer pushed and Matusow called. Well Raymer had 9 flush outs plus two overs for 6 more. 15 outs twice is about 52%. Raymer was in the lead and Mike kept saying that he was ahead with the made hand.