ITH Poker Forum

[Wynton]

The other day, I returned to a site I stopped playing many months ago, Victory Poker, because I really didn't like the interface. I noticed I had enough points to enter a freeroll, so figured what the hell.

I ended up winning about $10. Then I thought let's roll the dice and see what happens if I play. I played a little in a .25/50 table, six-max and won around another $7.

Now here's my little plan. I am going to move up in stakes as soon as I have enough to sit down at a table with the minimum required (or at least the average amount people sit with). So, if I get to $20, I think I can play .50/1. At $30 or $40, I will move to 1/2. I'll play nothing but six-max limit.

Why am I wasting time doing this? I have no idea. I can't even tell if I want to win, knowing this is such a waste of time. And if I actually manage to move up levels for a while, I hope I have the sense to stop when the money becomes more than negligible; but I'm not optimistic about that.

[SittingDuck]

Sounds like a fun quest. I have $1.25 in my pacific account, i might have to try the same.

When are you going to stop your quest? Obviously if you go broke that is the end of the quest but if you are succesful when will you consider stopping - $500, $1000??

[Wynton]

Well, as I said:

I hope I have the sense to stop when the money becomes more than negligible; but I'm not optimistic about that.

I think the odds are pretty strong that I'll actually lose the br entirely before I get to $100 (if not my very next session). But just for the fun of speculating, I honestly don't know how I'd react if I can build this up to $100 or $500. On one hand, I view that as real money; if nothing else, I could enter a tournament with it. On the other hand, I'll also consider it "free money" in a sense, and may not have the will to stop the quest.

I should add the condition, if it's not already clear, that I will not drop down a level at any point. Thus, whenever I play a session, it should be with the real risk that I could lose it all during that session.

Pretty silly, huh?

[bohemian]

Doing something that you enjoy is never a waste of time, if you ask me.

[nsidestrate]

Actually, I find this interesting. I'd really like to get Bugs to run the risk of ruin given your earn rate and standard deviation.

[Wynton]

Yeah, I'm kind of curious about the probabilities also.

But what assumptions would have to be made?

Starting at the micro levels - and giving me some benefit of the doubt - I guess it would be fair to give me a pretty good bb/100. If I played a "normal" game, the variance might be pretty high, though. For presumably I'd be pushing small edges and playing (at least initially) in a lot of no-fold em type games. (If I was more cautious, I might still win, but that wouldn't seem to be in the real spirit of the quest.) And keep in mind that I said I'd play only six-max limit.

With these conditions, isn't the risk of going broke pretty early on in the process relatively high?

[fep]

Risk of ruin, also depends on how far he is planning on going.

How far do the 6 max tables go at Victory?

[Wynton]

I just took a look. At the moment, I see six-max tables going from .25/50, .50/1, 1/2, 2/4, 3/6, 4/8, 5/10, 10/20, to 20/40.

[DTheater]

theres a guy on another forum who routinly runs up a roll and busts again. he ran $40 into $60,000 and lost it all in like a week or something. he then ran $20 into about $20,000 and lost it, then recently he ran $700 into $30,000 and lost most of it. i think he cashed a bit out this time, he will probably blow it all again though. He just playes loose/fish aggresivley and sits with his whole roll at tables and moves up limits when he gets enough. he caps like gutshot draws and weak aces, crazy!


i have often tohugh about this but i dont know if i could bring my self to play that stupidly.

[McFoldem]

You could drop down a limit once your down to the buyin for lower limit.

It all comes down to how many winning session can you do in row, assuming you don't drop down and lose it at all during your first losing session.

[Bugsbunny]

It all depends on what assumptions you make. For starters how many BB do you want to have in hand before moving up a limit. Earn and SD we can always fudge.

If you're planning on moving up with say 20 BB's I'd say the chances of you busting approach 100%.

Even if we give you numbers like an earn of 5 bb/100 with a SD of 15 BB/100 it's a coin-fli[p on whether you last 1 level. And at the lowest level that rate is still probably unreasonable due to high rake. A rate like that (or even higher) might be feasable at some of the rake free levels but once rake enters the picture it becomes difficult, to say the least.

If the search feature ever works again I can show you a post I once made about the probability of moving up through the levels with a 300BB bankroll.

In your example here using a 20 BB roll the chances you get to 20/40 and survive are about .2% at best, and probably much worse (like by a factor of about 10 or more worse)

[jeffnc]

I did sort of the reverse experiment on Pacific one time. I had built up my original $500 to $2,000. Then I went on this incredible losing streak at $10/20. I dropped to 5/10, lost, dropped to 3/6, lost, dropped to .25/.50, lost, and finally dropped to .05/.10 where I went completey broke. The funny thing is, each time I dropped down I got on these incredibly good tables - the flop % at .05/.10 was something like 70%. I wonder what the odds of tapping out were when I kept dropping down like that and playing really good tables.

[cmjsons]

In your example here using a 20 BB roll the chances you get to 20/40 and survive are about .2% at best, and probably much worse (like by a factor of about 10 or more worse)

Well, that's good news Wynton. I thought it was next to hopeless.

Leave it to Bugs to smash your dreams with all his mumbo, jumbo math stuff.

[Wynton]

In your example here using a 20 BB roll the chances you get to 20/40 and survive are about .2% at best, and probably much worse (like by a factor of about 10 or more worse)

Hey, I like those chances. Time to get started!

Being a tiny bit more realistic, if I want 20 bb roll, what would my chances of busting out be before I get to 2/4 (I think pretty likely) or 5/10 (seems like a near certainty).

For what it's worth, I've already hit $25!

[cybrarian]

Anyone care for a side bet on what limit Wynton busts out at?