ITH Poker Forum

[philhux]

I really don't see any value at all in raising the river as played here. For sure AA is the only hand that calls you, I suppose KK finds a call sometimes, QQ even less. You can run into 99, KJ, AJ. I mean, we think from his preflop raise size he has a big hand but people play strange.

I am trying to get a handle on how many chips you have left on the river. He bets 4,300 but how much does he have behind? If you raise then you can't fold if he shoves, just in case he is some kind of maniac who thinks AA is the nuts always and it won't be much more.

I like a turn check because I'm not really comfortable at all with getting it in here in the main event. In some more turboish tourney, with a lower buy in then sure, but in the main event, I'd be sick if I got all my chips in with this hand. So I like the check for that reason and also to bluffcatch.

Summary
Flop: I am 55/45 in favour of a check. My decision would likely be based on factors such as live reads and experience with this opponent.

But when you do bet, as played, I am 100% in favour of the turn check and just calling the river.

[mconstab]

I think I'd check back flop, bet turn, bet river. I think villain can have better jacks that he's trying to pot control albeit OOP as well as TT and all his semi bluffs will likely just Cbet. If I bet the flop I'd check back turn and just flat the river bet.

Interesting hand though and I feel like every street is actually really close.

[philhux]

If you check back the flop then 95% he is going to bet the turn, so do you raise then or just smooth call?

I think I'd check back flop, bet turn, bet river. I think villain can have better jacks that he's trying to pot control albeit OOP as well as TT and all his semi bluffs will likely just Cbet. If I bet the flop I'd check back turn and just flat the river bet.

Interesting hand though and I feel like every street is actually really close.

[mconstab]

If you check back the flop then 95% he is going to bet the turn, so do you raise then or just smooth call?

Depending on his sizing I probably just flat expecting to still get value on the turn and river whilst still keeping in some of his semi bluffs and allowing him to fire river with them.

[nsidestrate]

I really don't see any value at all in raising the river as played here. For sure AA is the only hand that calls you, I suppose KK finds a call sometimes, QQ even less. You can run into 99, KJ, AJ. I mean, we think from his preflop raise size he has a big hand but people play strange.

Based on Chris' description, the guy never has AJ or KJ here. Plus, I can't see him checking the flop with AJ or KJ. I do think 99 is a small possibility and he hoped to check-raise the turn.

[Radford]

I like pre-flop. Since you are deep and your opponent is deep too. I call all day long. I think i just have to bet the turn again though. I like betting because it gets more chips into the pot and your opponent doesn't have to automatically assume you have a jack.

I think i raise the river too. I would be 100% confident JT is good here and i would make a smallish raise to induce an overpair to call. And by the sounds of it, he probably does call with an overpair.

[nsidestrate]

I think i just have to bet the turn again though. I like betting because it gets more chips into the pot and your opponent doesn't have to automatically assume you have a jack.

I'm sympathetic to that argument. If I bet the turn, he isn't sure I have a Jack. If Chris bets the turn, maybe.

[chrisjp]

Lots of food for thought here. Great posts guys.

I'm still in pauli-nside-rad-chrisjp camp to raise the river, but the other side has given me a lot to chew on.

Bookkeeping: Villain had put 1600+2300+4300 of his stack in. That leaves him with about 19K behind. Also, by Big Bet I mean the following. In the STT we had gotten to heads up. There had already been a save so we weren't playing for a huge amount but in the heads up match we both had >10-20BBs. He was pushing and I was min raising. He tries to keep things simple.

Back to discussion: I'm liking my turn check more and more. It widens my range and puts drawing hands into the equation. Very unlikely I have trips or a full house. Guys with my image don't check behind with those hands. More importantly guys with my image DO bet with those hands, and only those hands usually. It also eliminates the c/r by him which would be uncomfortable as many have pointed out. Very uncomfortable.

Poker reads are by definition uncertain, but I really dismissed AJ-QJ, and almost completely dismiss 99. This guy is not tricky enough to squeeze with a hand like AJ, and he's too smart to squeeze with it too--OOP. I guess 99 is a remote possibility. But if he raised with that I think he would bet the flop and check the turn--against me anyway.

When I called on the river I would have been shocked to see a better hand. The reason I didn't raise the river was I didn't consider it, and if I had I would likely have dismissed it at the time. But really it's got a lot of merit.

A check behind by a guy with my image, and then a raise on the river, looks suspicious as hell. Maybe I hit a set on the river and so I have a full house. That's about it. And that's pretty remote. And a scared old guy might check behind with that hand anyway. Plus the flop contained both draws, and both draws missed. He's got to at least consider that.

A raise to 10K looks perfect. It gives him 5.7K to win 23K. It leaves him with 65BBs if he calls and loses. It also leaves me with 85BBs if I lose, so it might be a bluff. I think there is a good enough chance he has AA, and a decent chance that he will call me if he does, that I need to raise. Very very remote chance he has me beat...even if he calls less than I expect him to.

Chris

[chrisjp]

I think i just have to bet the turn again though. I like betting because it gets more chips into the pot and your opponent doesn't have to automatically assume you have a jack.

I'm sympathetic to that argument. If I bet the turn, he isn't sure I have a Jack. If Chris bets the turn, maybe.

+1 If it's Rad and not me...well that's completely different.

As the hand played out there were three players at the table, Seats 2,7 and 8, who I never raise the river. They are too tricky, so they might have me beat, and they might 3bet bluff the river too. But not my villain. He's too straightforward.

Chris

[chrisjp]

If you check back the flop then 95% he is going to bet the turn, so do you raise then or just smooth call?

Depending on his sizing I probably just flat expecting to still get value on the turn and river whilst still keeping in some of his semi bluffs and allowing him to fire river with them.

+1 However if you play it this way then it's more scary to him, IMO, if I raise the river. Looks like I have 99 with this line and not so much a bluff. Because I would likely fold the turn with a draw under this scenario.

[nsidestrate]

Back to discussion: I'm liking my turn check more and more. It widens my range and puts drawing hands into the equation. Very unlikely I have trips or a full house. Guys with my image don't check behind with those hands. More importantly guys with my image DO bet with those hands, and only those hands usually. It also eliminates the c/r by him which would be uncomfortable as many have pointed out. Very uncomfortable.

I love the check behind if you are going to raise the river. If you are going to flat the river, I'm less sure. It lets him set the bet size but it does maybe get the odd bluff from an AK kind of hand.

[mconstab]

I love the check behind if you are going to raise the river. If you are going to flat the river, I'm less sure. It lets him set the bet size but it does maybe get the odd bluff from an AK kind of hand.

His bet sizing on the river is going to influence a lot whether you raise or call if the turn went check check. If villain bets a third of the pot then it's probably pretty weak to just flat the river (depending on the particular river) and there's also the possibility that he can still find a call with worse if he feels his smallish bet may have induced hero's raise.

[chrisjp]

Darus Suharto, Jon Turner, and Collin Moshman still alive going to Day 5.