ITH Poker Forum

[cymansez]

Here is what I love about Chris. Immediately after he busted, at a time when in his shoes I'm looking for someone to drink with, he sends me a long text analyzing his weaknesses and concluding that his river play needs more work. Chris is my f-ing hero.

Amen to that, and gg, Chris.

[Tall Paul]

Bah! Was hoping for better news when I got up this morning.

GG Chris.

[superwomble]

Boo! Unlucky Chris

[royze1]

Sorry to hear this Chris. As Nside said your attitude is unbelievably awesome!

[chrisjp]

Hey guys,

Out. Ugh. The adrenaline definitely disappeared, and I slept like a baby. You don't realize how worn out you are, but I was mentally tired from the last few weeks, so that fit the bill.

Pretty sad, yes, but not the end of the world. It's one thing to go out on some huge pot. But to just melt away and then get wacked on the last hand like that. Definitely makes you feel so helpless.

While I basically was completely card dead the last 8 hours or so I know I learned a lot from this experience, much more than the other two Main Events that I played. I'll write up a report later but one of my winning hands I misplayed. Likely cost me 5-10K in chips but we'll never know. Maybe didn't cost me any. The point is to learn from your mistakes.

Here is the hand. It is Level 2, 100-200. I am in Seat 1. Seat 5 is the BB. Seat 7, a loose decent player but not particularly stubborn (and who amazingly was at my initial table in the 2010 Main Event) raises to 525. I call with . It folds to the BB who I played against in the STTs once. We chopped. He's a big bet type player, good but not thinking at a high level. He probably views me as a typical old guy, decent on the weak-tight side. We certainly mixed it up shorthanded in the Satellite so he knows I adapt. He raises to 1600. He's got like 27K and I've got like 31K. Seat 7 instamucks. Seat 1's bet size is small. Why? Well he might have a monster like AA or KK, or he might be squeezing because he knows the first guy is loose especially in early position, and it's like a normal 3-bet against me. I'm leaning to the former. If the former I have a chance to win a huge pot if I hit something. OK, he's giving me good odds to call, so I take them.

Flop:

Now Seat 5 checks. Hmmm. I decide to bet. My thoughts were, he likely has AK or some bad hand. I can't see him checking with KK or QQ. If he has AA or JJ he might check. JJ is super remote. I don't think he'll put me on JTs, that's not a likely call from an old guy the first time around, much less the second time preflop. I bet 2300 into 3800 or so and he calls. Call? He calls? Hmmm. Looks like he has Aces. AcKc? Or some nut flush draw?

Turn:

What a fantastic card. There is 8400 in the pot. Now what to do? He should be very worried if I bet again, so what's the point in betting? He likely has an overpair and he will know I don't have a full house if I check now...so just check behind and get a bet on the river. I figure him only for two outs. I mean, really, if he has a nut flush draw would he check the flop? No way. I check behind.

River:

Good, a blank. Now he plops a 5K chip into the pot saying "4300." OK back to me. "I call."

He shows

I win the pot....why am I not happy? Well, the last thing to do is to try to analyze a past hand when you've got to play on. I've got enough to worry about. But I had all of Monday to go over Day 1, and this hand was bothering me.

Fire away, but here's my thoughts now. Pretty bad.

Prelop is good. If you start folding these then quit playing. You've got to mix it up when deep. What is the small reraise? If he reraises to like 2600 then I let it go. He's trying to suck me in, so I gladly take the bait in position. People get stacked with AA all the time by attempting to get the opponents to play cheaply. See my hand in the Caesar's Palace Seniors where my 54s>AA when he slowplayed deep and I busted him.

Flop: Debatable put poor I think. Why bet here? There's some reason to...TID right now. But I have 5 outs to a real good hand if I check, and I also have a backdoor straight. There is a reason to bet, and that is to build a pot if you improve on the turn.............

Turn: what a great card! And now I really blew it by checking. Perfect time to bet. I forgot to think about what he thought that I might have in the hand. I mean I knew he wouldn't put me on JT. I'm much more likely to be calling pre with a pair and set mining. So the J9x flop is right in my QQ-88 wheelhouse and he's checking because he's keeping the pot under control and using his AA as a bluff catcher.

So bet the turn, Chris! Bet like 4300. If he's got AA he's scared, but he won't fold. He's never going to think the J helped me. So bet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And then bet 5000-15000 on the river. Put him to the test! With two clubs and a straight possibility on the flop that didn't come in...he will have a tough time folding. I think a bet to leave him with like 25-30BBs would be good.

Now given the way I played it...how about a raise on the river? Absolutely. I mean he doesn't have me beat since I underrepped my hand on the turn and I might be bluffing. Maybe he'll fold and maybe he won't. Don't just call thinking he won't put any more money in the pot.

Sigh. He might have folded the river anyway. But that's not the point as we all know. But at least I'm vetting the hands. Very poorly played hand. But I learned from it. Now you guys can chime in on it and maybe I'll learn another thing or two.

Hey thanks again everyone for all the support. It means and meant a lot.

There are 2 or 3 other debatable hands. We'll discuss those later.

Chris

[PauliF]

man i love you

bring on next year

your analysis of that hand seems spot on to me
not raising the river as played is a crime against decency

[poker_Elmo]

First, was fun to rail. Day 3 won't be as fun now.

Not betting the turn is the main mistake in that hand, I think. A turn bet forces out draws, but AA and maybe KK are the only non-draw hands that call you that you are beating, right? AJ, KJ, and QJ all call/raise but beat you. So does 99. You would hate to bust here. You thought he had a monster when he just called the flop, so being behind on the turn isn't out of the question.

You would have to be uber-confident he had AA or KK to raise that river. What else would he call you with that you beat?

Playing small pots with great but non-nut hands in the main event isn't a bad thing.

[chrisjp]

Not betting the turn is the main mistake in that hand, I think. A turn bet forces out draws, but AA and maybe KK are the only non-draw hands that call you that you are beating, right? AJ, KJ, and QJ all call/raise but beat you. So does 99. You would hate to bust here. You thought he had a monster when he just called the flop, so being behind on the turn isn't out of the question.
You would have to be uber-confident he had AA or KK to raise that river. What else would he call you with that you beat?
Playing small pots with great but non-nut hands in the main event isn't a bad thing.

not raising the river as played is a crime against decency

This is a question of reads and those not at the table are at a disadvantage, unlike me. I should get this right. Elmo makes a good point about not committing too many chips on a hand if you don't have the nuts or near nuts, but you've got to trust your reads too.

First of all. Is this guy good or tricky enough to squeeze with 99 or AJ or KJ or QJ? Not only have I seen him play for 3 hours I played a satellite against him. No way is he squeezing OOP with these hands. Not even 99. He doesn't want to have to play 99 OOP, just like I wouldn't. Now there are great players in the Main Event and some of them would squeeze with 99 here and trust their reads. But not many. Certainly not this guy. Sure you have to reconsider your reads as the hand plays out. But especially early in the Main Event when the quality of play is uneven...you have to trust them. My two mistakes were not thinking this through more, and then trusting my conclusions. One reason to call the squeeze is to stack a premium hand when he gives me good direct odds, great implied odds, and I have a hand that he likely considers out of my range. He's quite likely to put me on a pair here...a medium pair probably. I didn't consider this line of thought enough. That was the beginning of all my problems.

Would this player not c-bet with a draw? I have a hard time believing he would check a draw. While I'll rule out all the above, he might have AcKc. Possible. Not a probable line but maybe.

Now he checks and calls. Would he ck-call with AcKc? Again, not likely. Would he ck-call with KK or QQ. Hard to believe. Only AA and JJ make sense.

I really think I was approaching the hand with your line of thinking Elmo. And I'm convinced in this hand, against this guy, it's wrong. I can elminate all these hands. Once I decide that the reason he can have AA and not bet the flop.......it's cause he's scared that I have JJ or 99. Well then it all makes sense. I didn't factor this in either. Way too shallow thinking.

You can argue a check on the turn so that you can make a huge river bet as a bluff. Yanks had a hand like this in the ME two years ago. He called a preflop raise with 33. Board came A3xxx. Two flush on the flop that missed on the river. I can't remember the betting for sure but I believe villain c-bet the flop, yanks raised. Turn was ck ck. River: Villain checked and yanks put him in. It was an overbet. Villain thought forever and finally called with AK.

This is what could have happened here with a turn check. But not to raise the river is not just a misdemeanor...it's a felony. I'm with paulif on this one. One good thing though...check out my signature...penned by a great prophet.

[chrisjp]

I don't have to worry about him having 99. He has to worry about me having 99. Or JJ. But the turn really dismisses the JJ part. He's not going to like it, but I think he'll call my raise on the river with AA. It's worth gambling on anyway. It's just that checking behind on the turn made him think I had TT or 88 or QQ.

Chris

[chrisjp]

You thought he had a monster when he just called the flop, so being behind on the turn isn't out of the question.

Well not really, I thought he had a monster preflop. AA, KK, maybe QQ, and AK. Now if he thinks I have a pair then J9x is a scary flop for him. So check and call just confirms the initial range...throwing out AK unless he has AcKc and making KK and QQ less likely.

[poker_Elmo]

I really think I was approaching the hand with your line of thinking Elmo. And I'm convinced in this hand, against this guy, it's wrong. I can elminate all these hands. Once I decide that the reason he can have AA and not bet the flop.......it's cause he's scared that I have JJ or 99. Well then it all makes sense. I didn't factor this in either. Way too shallow thinking.

With the live read that you "know" he would never reraise PF with AA-QQ or AK, that certainly changes things as you can't be behind if that's all he reraises with. I didn't know that based on your earlier writings. In fact, you wrote:

or he might be squeezing because he knows the first guy is loose especially in early position, and it's like a normal 3-bet against me. I'm leaning to the former

So when it happened, you thought he might be squeezing, right? You said you suspected it was a strong hand but if you're only leaning a lesser hand is possible. Is the fact that he showed down AA after-the-fact makes making it easier to eliminate the possibility that he's reraising something else?

Still think the river call's OK. For the raise to be profitable: First, you have to have him beat. Second, you have to get paid when you bet. Third, factor in that when a decision is close, I would lean against a thin value bet in a tournament (and for one in a cash game).

As you said, it all comes down to the live read you had at the time on whether a river raise is better.

I think you played the hand better than you are giving yourself credit for.

[chrisjp]

Good points elmo. You are right about his squeeze perhaps being looser than I suggested. So at the time maybe I wasn't as convinced as I am now, or think I am now. I'm just thinking back to this guy. Would I squeeze 150BBs deep out of the blinds with 99 or QcTc? No way, now maybe I should once in a while, and maybe I will someday, but no way would I have done that Sunday. And I don't think this villain would either. I could be wrong and he might be better than I imagine.

If I raise the river, he's in a tough spot with AA and might call. The flop has both Straight and Flush draws. And I could have taken a free card on the turn and then missed on the river. But maybe he would fold--esp since I'm an old guy. But he saw me play loosely in the STT sat. Who knows, maybe he doesn't even remember me. I really have no feel for his call/fold ratio. I think he would figure me for a pair to call his raise preflop, but maybe he doesn't narrow me down that quickly.

OK if it's not right to raise the river, then not betting the turn has to be a mistake.

One thing for sure...I didn't even contemplate raising the river. Now that has to be wrong.



Chris

[philhux]

Chris. I am sad to hear of your demise. Being card dead in a tourney like that is no fun. I was pretty card dead in the EPT Berlin this year and folding and folding sucks and maybe when you do get out of line someone sticks it in your face. Miserable.

With regards the hand you posted. I do think you are being a little bit results orientated with it and I do not mind your line so much. I will try and be more detailed street by street with my thoughts if i have chance tomorrow. The key is that you played with this guy before and some time early in the main and I didnt, so I am sure you have some more dead on opinions and instincts about it. Nevertheless I offer my view.

When I played the ME last year, I got pretty much all of my chips by flopping a pair, betting flop, checking the turn and catching a bluff on the river. Chipping up without really playing a big pot for two days. People seemed to like to bluff the river, people also seemed to not like to fold the flop.

To Pauli - there is no way you can ever raise the river there! It is almost a complete ´zero play´

With regards to his preflop raise size. You played with him, sometimes people's betsizing just isn't very good. Is he a bad preflop betsize guy? 1600 is a decent raise size vs one opponent, but vs two it is clearly too small. Sometimes people don't adjust. Eg with 5 limpers they then make it 3.5x. So maybe it is that, but maybe he does have a big hand, so you can crack it!

Hand in question. If you think this guy is straightforward then I like the flop bet. You are both protecting and defining your hand. Now you describe this guy as a big bet player. What does this mean exactly? If he is liable to checkraise a draw and barrel turn, then checking behind could be prudent. If he is a check calling type with a draw, then I like the bet more. Maybe you don't know yet? you haven't played a tonne of hands with him. If you get checkraised on the flop, you have to let it go though, right? So again, that leans towards a check. OK. But then if you bet he might check call AK and you get value.

On this hand I for sure don't think you get three streets of value, and two streets of value is gonna be tricky against anything apart from aces.

So if you bet flop you have to check turn. As played, if you bet the turn and get raised, what are you going to do there? You hate life. This is the main event, you have trips but why couldn't he have three nines or AJ. You don't want to have to secondguess your whole stack. So a check is good.

From what you said, you prefer to check flop and bet turn. This makes sense, you are getting one street of value and you are going to the river with a very good but not awesome hand.

However, if you check flop back, with this hand he is for sure going to barrel turn, and again for the same reason, jeopardising your whole stack - if this is the way it played out then you couldn't raise here. You would have to flat call the turn with your trips. And then on the river, well he might barrel again with the aces and again you would just have to flat call. I think to raise would be a spew on either the turn or the river. If he did decide to check river, you would fire and you would really be bet folding - you surely would have to fold to a raise on the river? but that's another debate.

So the same as the way it actually played, you only got two streets of bets in if you check flop, the same as it actually played out.

The bonus of the way it played out, is that you get an extra street of value if he has something like AK or AQ and decides to bluff the river. The extra bluff bet. You've turned a very good hand into a bluffcatcher. but I think in the ME, so deep and slow, that is a fine and lower variance way to play poker.

It is late and this is a Swedish keyboard, but I hope that makes some sense at least.

Again sorry on the bustage. It sucks.

[kinnipak]

GG Chris. Your reports are the stuff of Legends sir.

[nsidestrate]

I am in the very frightening position of agreeing with Pauli and disagreeing with Phil. I actually really like the turn check because if you pop the turn again with your image, he is going to be very afraid to pay you off with AA. He might call the turn, but will then fold the river. However, I want to check the turn so that I can raise the river. It is going to confuse the hell out of him and I think with the hand he holds, he might call. Its the only hand he would call with, but in this particular case you have his range defined really tightly.

If we don't think he ever pays off the river raise with AA, then it doesn't make much difference how you play it -- you get two streets of value at most. The question then becomes if he ever folds to a turn bet. If yes, you're better off to wait and trap him on the river. This is where being you is tricky. No one would be sure I have the Jack and I'd almost always get three streets of value here.