ITH Poker Forum

[natluc]

Hello
I am a relatively new player trying to learn as much as I can. This is the best book I've found that really explains odds, probabilities, and how to apply them. I have come across a hand example where I just can't understand the outs count and it's driving me nuts! I'm looking at the example on P73 where the hole cards are JJ and the flop is T88, with a Q on the turn. The example says there are two outs to the full house and four outs to the gut shot straight. How come there are only two outs to the full house? I keep arriving at four (2 jacks and 2 eights). Are the two eights not being counted and if not, how come?Please help!!

[mchilger]

Nat, this hand is not worded the best. It is true that you have four outs to a full house, but in the example, we assume that you opponent has at least a Q in his hand. In this case, the two "outs" to the 8 won't allow you to win so they are discounted to zero and not counted.

Glad you are liking the book and sorry for the confusion.

Matthew

[natluc]

Thanks Matthew. I appreciate the quick reply.

[mchilger]

Almost forgot to say, Welcome to the Forum! Matthew

[MikeMcCormickEsq]

I had the same question and I am glad this forum was available to answer my question.
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Next question, at the bottom of page 78, with QJ in the hold and 954 on the flop, you say that the gut shot will occur more frequently. I am afraid I am not seeing that. Between the KT8, it seems both the K or the T give you the open-ended straight draw and the 8 the gut-shot draw. Unless I am missing something, that still looks like the open-ended comes up twice as often.
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Can you help me understand what I might be overlooking?
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Thanx from a former resident of Atlanta (Alpharetta).

[mchilger]

Hi Mike, I am not sure I understand your question completely but I will try to answer.
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The main idea behind this page is that the odds for backdoor straight draws depend on what type of backdoor straight draw you have. QJ on a T54 flop is better than QJ on a 954 flop.
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In the T54 flop, two cards can come on the turn giving you an open-ender - a K or a 9.
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In the 954 flop, only the T can give you an open-ender.
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Therefore, a backdoor draw without a "gap" is slightly better than one with a gap. As the calculations show, we're talking about a 1.4% difference.
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Hope that helps.
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tx, Matthew