ITH Poker Forum

[nsidestrate]

In your article Where Does One Big Bet Per Hour Come From? Part II you say the following:

Inducing calls and bluffs: Making 1 BB per hr requires winning an occasional bet that another player might not realize is available or know how to get. Pros are always thinking about how to extract the maximum bets from any favorable situation that might arise. When holding what is likely the best hand, they do not just think "bet, bet, bet," but "how can I play this hand to get the most out of it." Frequently, this requires playing the hand more slowly, or even with more risk of losing, just to get one extra bet.

For example, in a head up situation, a pro has two pair on the turn. After his opponent checks, he feels there is a good likelihood that the opponent will now fold. So instead of betting and winning the pot, he checks. This play may embolden the opponent to bluff the river. Or is may cause enough doubt in the opponent that after a blank falls and the opponent checks, the pro now bets, and the opponent may make a curiosity call. Either way, the pro makes a bet that a more straightforward player might not get.

I've struggled with this concept a lot over the years and I have not been able to make it work very well for me. It may be a function of my style or perhaps I play in games that are generally more aggressive, but when I check the turn in situations like these, I rarely induce bets on the river.

One factor at work is that I tend to be the aggressor in a lot of situations and usually have been caught at least per session pounding away at a board with the worst hand. This could well be a leak, but I feel that I tend to win far more than my share of pots when no one has much of anything and I also think that this nets me more action than other players when I flop good. Given that background, when I check the turn most players probably have alarm bells sounding in their heads.

I also think that at middle limits, when a player who was the aggressor checks behind on the turn it is almost always with the intention of calling on the river. As a result, good players never bet the river without a hand that beats AK unimproved. Tons of players will take this line with 77 on a KQ52r type board on the turn.

In your example, I find that with two pair, I will only induce a bet on the river from someone who held one pair and those hands were usually going to call me down anyhow. If he improves to a worse two pair or catches an overcard, he might even go more than one bet on the river for me.

I guess my question for you is this: Do you often check behind in heads-up pots with strong hands on the turn? Do you think that your image makes this work better for you than me or do you think I just haven't been picking the right spots? I'm assuming you don't want to take this line against multiple players or with draw heavy boards. What else are you looking for?

[pokerbear]

Hi. Sorry for the delay. my wife has been ill, and that has taken most of my time.

First, please note that excerpt specifically says this play may work if you believe the person is going to fold the turn. if your opponent has a pair and is the type to never fold one pair (please send them to my game), then of course you should bet.

Does this play still work? Less than it used to, as the modern style is to bet the turn if you bet the flop regardless of your hand or chances. Thus, as you are now seemingly expected to bet the turn, checking the turn is quite suspicious. I still do it, as I tend to play against tendencies, but you are correct that it may work less well at the present.

Do not forget that when someone does check the turn. you are getting great pot odds to bluff at the river. I have also had great success with this bluff, even though it works less than half the time.