ITH Poker Forum

[Bouma]

We get to the bubble within 10 minutes. Right before the bubble, it actually was the second to last hand before the bubble burst, Dempsey raises in the CO. I look down and see AJo OTB. Normally I would take a flop with this. But I just muck it. I know the bubble is bursting within an orbit and I don’t want to even deal with this. Mr. Tatoo in the BB calls.

Flop is KQT two spades. Yike, what a flop. But it doesn’t bother me in the slightest.
Mr. Tatoo donks right out, Dempsey raises, and Mr. Tatoo pushes. Dempsey quickly calls. Tatoo at risk.

Tatoo: KQo
Dempsey: A7ss for the nut flush draw and the gutter.

Turn is a spade. No help on the river for Tatoo. He is busted and devastated. Almost in tears. Poker can be cruel. But I’m not busted….I’m on to the next hand.

I talked with yanks about this one. I had about 40BBs and Dempsey had over 100BBs. The BB had about 30BBs. After taking yanks' words of advice to heart and giving this some serious thought I would call Dempsey's raise now. While I'm not willing to go busto this hand absent a real cooler, I should be willing to risk up to 30BBs or so. I can do that with pot control. So just call and see what develops. Of course I would have busted this one had I called but that's poker.

Chris

Thats right.
I think the bubble shouldn't be thought about, as long as it is no satellite.
Because of the flat payout structure, you need to get deep in the money anyway, am I wrong?
I mean if you would normally play this hand, there is no reason, other than scared money, not to do it.
How it would've played out is not important, you can't judge the play by the outcome. Plus you don't know for sure what Dempsey would've done with another player behind him.

Anyway I could see myself folding here too, because I don't have the money to play the WSOP regularly so I would be desperate to get in the money

[chrisjp]

The point is that you have to put a player on a range. Jacob's range here is probably ATo, A8s, 66+, KQo, KJs and throw in an occasional 87s. Part of the reason for this wide range is that I am in the big blind. I have an incredibly nittish image, I look like a nit, and so that's all factored into putting him on a range too.

I didn't stop and think about all of this at the time. I knew 99 was a call as soon as I looked at it. That's because I've spent a lot of time thinking about ranges away from the table. .

99 v. 66+,A8s+,KJs+,98s,ATo+,KQo is slightly better than 50%. Basically coin flip. I have to wager 12BBs to win [13BBs + 1.5BBs(the blinds) + 1.2BBs(the antes) ]or 6-5 pot odds. This is an easy call. And throw in one more fact I didn't mention. We are about 5 minutes from going to the next level. That is 2000-4000a500. At that point I will have about 8BBs.

Pate you make a valid point in that I see many players get way too reckless and impatient with stacks of <20BBs, and especially stacks of <10BBs. They just shove it in and hope. Many really good and successful players too. They don't like playing short stacks. The fact that I won or lost the hand is completely irrelevant though. I won Sklansky bucks here, even if all I got was an IOU.

Chris


ps. You can't play scared when you get short, but you have to calm down. You have to chose your spots carefully but you have to worry about losing folding equity. You have to take some chances because the blinds are eating at you big time. So getting your money in even at a disadvantage is sometimes advisable. You need to accumulate a stack so you can go back to playing full stack poker. Getting so low that when you double you are still short is terrible.

[chrisjp]

I think the bubble shouldn't be thought about, as long as it is no satellite.

No, that's not right. You have to look at the structure.

Here finishing 400th was worth 0.
Finishing 398th was worth $1800
Finishing 350th was worth $1800
Finishing 115th was worth $3200
Finishing 1st was worth $650K

You have to factor this all in. You should not play the hands right near the bubble the same way that you play a hand say in the middle of the tournament. Because you have so much to lose when you bust relative to what you win when you win. You are risking 1800 near the bubble with my stack. And to win what? Well somewhat more than 1800 in equity, but not a lot more. So you have to be more careful (and sometimes way more active than you are normally when you exploit the other stacks). You do play differently on the bubble, and it is correct to do so.

Now I had a nice stack, I could risk a lot of it without fear of losing my 1800. I should have done so. Now I should only risk the entire stack with a very very good chance of doubling. Figuring that out is....well that's what makes poker so fun.

Chris

[poker_Elmo]

I talked with yanks about this one. I had about 40BBs and Dempsey had over 100BBs. The BB had about 30BBs. After taking yanks' words of advice to heart and giving this some serious thought I would call Dempsey's raise now. While I'm not willing to go busto this hand absent a real cooler, I should be willing to risk up to 30BBs or so. I can do that with pot control. So just call and see what develops. Of course I would have busted this one had I called but that's poker.

Chris

There is no reason to bust with an AJo there PF, certainly, but at least a call seems OK.

3-betting seems inadvisable, unless:

1) you have an image of someone who would not be making a move on the bubble.
2) your opponent won't push to try to to get you off a hand.

I am guessing you fit with 1), but that makes raising 62o about as good as AJ. Why waste an AJo there? Regarding 2), Given who raised first, he might be the type to 4-bet light to try to abuse the bubble - so reraising is out.

I like a call PF too. You can play a moderate sized pot in position without fear of busting, and potentially win a big pot.

Would have been a nasty bubble if you had, but think of all those Skalansky bucks!

[/quote]

[chrisjp]

Right

I should call and take a flop. The villain is super aggro and also a bracelet winner so you have to be careful. The problem in the hand will be the river. Villain is smart enough to know I don't want to bust, so he may overbet to put me in on the river when normally he wouldn't, just to increase his folding equity. In fact he probably will.

Still I should call preflop and worry about that later. If I had like 20-25BBs now I can't make a showdown if he bets every street and so I should fold probably. Anything less than 20BBs is an easy fold.

Chris

[Taardvark]

congrats on another ITM finish. Great report as always.